Mothballs

Walking home the other day, behind an elderly couple, I smelled the distinct odor of mothballs. I recognized the odor because I would randomly find them when I played in the closets as a kid. “Anthony, they’re poisonous. Don’t touch them,” my mother would say as I held one and gazed at its snowball-like appearance in wonder.

Who uses mothballs anymore, anyway? I decided to look into it.

Checking online, I found there were a slew of mothball suppliers and manufacturers in China, Taiwan, India, Singapore and only one in the United States.

Then I wondered if there were enough wool sweaters, coats and whatnot around to justify stinky mothballs. I also wondered what kinds of moths eat wool – was it all species? Are they around only in warm months? Are they in Richmond or did the state pest control authority wipe them out? What’s the real story here?

So why am I thinking so much about mothballs, wool and bugs? This process of observing, what ifs, and discovery is what we live and breathe everyday at Martin Decision Sciences—it’s our analytical mindset. This relentless curiosity is as addictive as wool is to moths.

We go about observing our client’s brand and customers with a variety of data mining and optimization tools, looking into digital, social, and traditional media; sales data and Internet presence. Then we ask questions about what the data is telling us and create what ifs based on what we find in the data. (Does anyone use mothballs anymore? Do people still buy wool clothing?). We then confirm or throw out our what ifs based on more in-depth research.

This new approach enables us to look at the various data sources, connect the dots and determine how each affects each other for deeper insights and better decision-making—a holistic analysis.

With all that said, I still had to know more about mothballs. I went to one of my most favorite sites, HowStuffWorks.com. I found that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires mothball manufacturers to include a warning on packaging to "avoid breathing in the vapors." Who would want to? That’s one reason why there is only one mothball manufacturer/supplier in the US. And guess what? Apparently harmless cedar wood chips work just as well.

So I wondered if there is a strong demand for pure 100% wool clothing that makes you itch. With all the advances in better materials to keep you warm and dry like lighter Gortex, Polyester, Spandex, synthetic fleece and wool blends, why would someone risk good money for a wool sweater that can be eaten by bugs?

Looking at Google Trends and based on the number of times wool clothing is searched, I found there was a downward trend starting in December 2010 through December 2012, indicating wool was losing its appeal. My hypothesis was right on, so I thought.

Then I found an article in The Huffington Post that stated wool is now the hot fashion fabric for this Spring’s outdoor clothing, according to exhibitors at the world's largest expo for outdoor equipment and apparel: The Outdoor Retailer Winter Market, held in Salt Lake City this January.

In addition, The Guardian UK’s leading newspaper, reported last fall that wool is making a comeback in fashion as well.

So what is the takeaway here? You may want to watch the wool markets for upcoming sales and investment opportunities. You may also want to replace any mothballs in your closets or drawers with cedar chips.

All that from just the smell of mothballs one afternoon after work.

Cover Photo by Alex Robertson.